Determinants of the Short-Run Interest Rate in Turkey: A Taylor Rule Approach

Authors : Dilek SÜREKÇİ YAMAÇLI

Pages : 249-257

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Publication Date : 2019-09-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study is investigated the determinants of the short run interest rate and validity of the Taylor Rule, using Two-Stage Least Squares insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(TSLS);, Method of the Generalizied Moments insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(GMM); and Relative Sensitivity Analyses insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(RSA); for 2002-2016 periods. Results of the TSLS and GMM analyses are show that there are positive relationship between the interest rate, capacity utilization rate, exchange rate and inflation gap. According to the RSA results, there are stronger relations between short run interest rate, capacity utilization rate and exchange rate than output gap. In this context, these two variables can be effective indicators for predict to the short run interest rates in Turkey. Beside, according to TSLS and GMM results, interest rate smoothing parameter is meaningful and positive effect on the nominal interest rate. This result indicates that a sudden change in the short run interest rate was not made by the CBRT this period. 
Keywords : Taylor Rule, Short Run Interest Rate, TSLS, GMM