Modelling and mapping of current and future potential distribution areas of Anemone coronaria L. in Türkiye

Authors : Ayşegül Tekeş Düdükçü
Pages : 290-301
Doi:10.53516/ajfr.1779655
View : 58 | Download : 130
Publication Date : 2025-12-31
Article Type : Research Paper
Abstract :Background and Aims This study aim to predict the current and future potential distribution areas of Anemone coronaria L., an important geophyte species naturally distributed in Türkiye. Methods The species’ potential distribution modelling and mapping were conducted using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) method. Current climate data were obtained from the WorldClim database, while future projections for the year 2100 were derived from the UKESM1-0LL global climate model outputs under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Species occurrence records were sourced from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. Results The modelling results indicated that the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values were 0.938 for the training dataset and 0.933 for the test dataset, classifying the model’s performance as “excellent.” The environmental variables on the species’ potential distribution were Annual Precipitation (BIO12), Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (BIO18), Temperature Annual Range (BIO7), ruggedness, and elevation. Currently, A. coronaria shows high habitat suitability concentrated along the coastal zones of the Aegean, Mediterranean, and southern Marmara regions. Future projections suggest varying degrees of habitat contraction depending on the severity of climate change. Conclusions A. coronaria is highly sensitive to climate change and that future habitat contraction could adversely affect its ecological, aesthetic, and cultural values. This study contributes to the sustainable management of A. coronaria and provides a model framework for the conservation of other climate-sensitive Mediterranean flora.
Keywords : İklim değişikliği, geofit, MaxEnt, Akdeniz ekosistemleri, tür dağılım modellemesi, SSP senaryoları

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