Economic Uncertainty on Social Media: The Impact of X Posts on Economic and Financial Indicators

Authors : Muhammed Fatih Yürük

Pages : 56-69

Doi:10.54821/uiecd.1634814

View : 51 | Download : 67

Publication Date : 2025-03-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study explores the influence of posts on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) concerning economic uncertainty on key economic and financial indicators, including GDP, commercial bank loans, and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The analysis focuses on the United States due to its pivotal role in global financial markets and the significant presence of U.S. users, who account for 50% of English-speaking X users, offering a rich dataset for studying social media-driven economic sentiment. Variables such as the USA Gross Domestic Product Index, Commercial Bank Loans, New York Stock Exchange Composite, and X-based Economic Uncertainty Index (TEU) were analyzed using monthly data from June 2011 to April 2023. Employing a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the study finds that fluctuations in commercial bank loans and the NYSE Composite significantly impact GDP, while posts reflecting economic uncertainty, as captured by the TEU, primarily respond to changes in bank loans. The results reveal a bidirectional relationship between GDP and commercial bank loans, where loans can drive economic growth through increased consumer spending and investment, though excessive borrowing may lead to instability and crises. Furthermore, the TEU is influenced solely by variations in commercial bank loans, highlighting social media sentiment’s sensitivity to credit dynamics in the U.S. economy.
Keywords : Ekonomik Belirsizlik, Sosyal Medya, GSYİH, VAR