A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model

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Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi
Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2
A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model

A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Authors : Olcay Ölçen

Pages : 75-90

View : 56 | Download : 147

Publication Date : 2025-12-26

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Purpose and Method: Air carriers are accustomed to hard times financially and economically because they are at the crossroads of three important dimensions that are economic, political and technological. Even small changes in these dimensions are the source of a crisis. The motivations of the US. Air carriers\\\' investors are in a state of continual change. This analysis aims to make a return forecast using the Monte Carlo Simulation method with three scenarios in which values of standard deviations are 0.01, 0.0001 and 0.000001. Findings: According to the findings, as standard deviations increase, the gains or losses increase while the mean is stable. On the other hand, it can be concluded that the states should utilise more stable politics regarding the dynamics of air carriers. Volatility is an enemy of air carriers in financial management, as witnessed in COVID-19 and similar crises. Air carriers and states should be ready for volatility shocks because airlines are designed as part of state strategies and politics. Therefore, hedging strategies should always continue. Originality: This research shows the behaviours of the stock returns and possible results under experimental conditions and changing shocks from small to large.
Keywords : Hava Taşıyıcıları, Finansal Getiriler, Monte Carlo Simülasyon Modeli, Standart Sapma

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