Alternatif Modellerin Enflasyon Öngörü Performansı: Türkiye Örneği

Authors : Sezgin AKSOY, Nezir KÖSE, Nuri UÇAR

Pages : 37-52

View : 17 | Download : 13

Publication Date : 2000-12-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Turkey has implemented its monetary and exchange rate policy based on pre-commitment which is pre-announced basket peg in the year 2000. This policy leads to provide the additional information to set up the forecast models for Turkish inflation. Inflation forecasts can be improved with the injection of a prior information into the structural insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(conditional); econometric models. This study focuses on the relation between inflation and exchange rate by comparing the forecasting performances of structural econometric and Vector Autoregressive insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(VAR); models. We observe that Adaptive Expectations Model gives the better one-step ahead forecasts rather than the other models via Root Mean Square Errorinsert ignore into journalissuearticles values(RMSE); criterion. Moreover, forecasts of being obtained from Adaptive Expectations and Cointegration models are combined to reach to the more qualified inflation forecasts.
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