PREPARING FOR THE INEVITABLE: LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES AND DAMAGE PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKE IN ISTANBUL

Authors : Tayfun Baskın, Ayberk Şeker

Pages : 90-108

View : 73 | Download : 42

Publication Date : 2025-07-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Positioned atop active fault lines, Turkey faces an imminent earthquake risk, particularly in densely populated and economically vital cities like Istanbul. This study models the potential impact of a 7.5-magnitude Marmara Earthquake on Istanbul using a coefficient-based mathematical framework derived from empirical data from the 1999 Gölcük and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Results estimate 105,765 fatalities, 283,355 serious injuries, and over 101,081 heavily damaged buildings across Istanbul’s districts. The projected destruction reveals a colossal post-disaster logistics burden. To address only basic needs in the first response phase, an estimated 2,392 trucks must be mobilized: 265 for tents, 69 for first aid kits, 977 for 10-day food supplies, and 1,081 for basic clothing materials. Additionally, 21,051 pieces of construction machinery will be required for debris removal and rescue operations. Emergency medical response capabilities will face severe strain: assuming each ambulance can serve two critically injured individuals, the initial response will require at least 141,678 ambulances—a number that vastly exceeds Turkey’s current medical transport capacity. These projections highlight the urgency of planning for ambulance routing systems, temporary field hospitals, and intercity medical cooperation agreements in advance. Given Istanbul’s dense urban landscape, aging building stock, and fragile infrastructure, logistical collapse is a near certainty without proactive intervention. Centralized logistics coordination centers, pre-signed agreements with logistics and demolition providers, and predefined emergency corridors in high-risk districts such as Esenyurt, Avcılar, and Küçükçekmece are essential. By offering a data-driven, scalable disaster model, this study equips policymakers and urban planners with actionable insights to prevent large-scale humanitarian crises in the aftermath of a major seismic event.
Keywords : Marmara Depremi, Afet Lojistiği, Deprem Senaryosu, Hasar Analizi, Matematiksel Modelleme

ORIGINAL ARTICLE URL