THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CREDIT CARD EXPENDITURES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND CONSUMERS` SAVING TENDENCIES

Authors : Yasemin BAŞARIR

Pages : 65-77

Doi:10.46959/jeess.1080739

View : 18 | Download : 10

Publication Date : 2022-03-26

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The decisions of consumers in the economy have a decisive role in the understanding of economic indicators and planning the future. Consumer decisions are affected by many different elements. Foremost among them among are the consumer confidence index, which measures the tendency of consumers to spend or save, and credit card expenditures, which have a significant share in the consumption structure. Although the decisions taken by the households vary from time to time, it is thought that the spending of consumers with credit cards has increased especially during the COVID 19 period, but some consumers have a precautionary behavior and tend to save. Therefore, behavior of the households can be forecasted if the relationship between the expectations of consumers, saving trends and expenditure trends is determined. For this purpose, the relationship between credit card expenditures, consumer confidence and consumers` saving tendencies are investigated for the period 2014: 03-2021: 12. The relationship between the variables for this period is analyzed with ARDL model. As a result of the applied analyzes, it has been found that there is a statistically significant cointegration relationship between variables. In the long term, credit card expenditures have a negative and significant effect on the consumer confidence index and the tendency of the savings is has no significant effect. The short-term relationship between variables is analyzed with the error correction model insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ECM);. As a result of the analyzes, it was found that the savings tendency has a significant impact on the consumer confidence index, and credit card expenditures have positive but low-effect on the consumer confidence index for its lagged values.
Keywords : Consumer confidence index, saving, expenditure, ARDL Model Application