Renewable Energy Forecasting in Turkey: Analytical Approaches

Authors : Mehmet Berke Colak, Erkan Özhan

Pages : 25-34

Doi:10.38016/jista.1447980

View : 96 | Download : 62

Publication Date : 2025-03-18

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The growing population and industrialization have resulted in an increased demand for energy, which has worsened environmental problems such as pollution and climate change. Renewable energy sources are considered a promising solution due to their environmental benefits and limited potential. This study examines the use of neural networks and time series analysis to predict electricity generation rates from renewable energy sources in Turkey. We use the LSTM, NNAR, and ELM models, all of which utilize the backpropagation algorithm for neural network forecasting. Additionally, we apply ARIMA, Holt’s trend, linear regression, mean, and exponential smoothing models for time series analysis. We evaluate the performance using the mean absolute error and root mean square error on the training and test data. The study showed that LSTM models outperformed the ARIMA (1,2,1), ARIMA (2,2,1), ARIMA (3,2,1), and NNAR methods in forecasting accuracy. Although the NNAR model initially had the lowest error, its linear predictions made it less suitable for practical applications. This study highlights the effectiveness of neural networks and time series analysis in predicting renewable energy sources. The ARIMA (1,2,1), LSTM and ARIMA (3,2,1) modeling methods are useful for optimizing the planning and management of Turkey\\\'s renewable energy future, contributing to a more sustainable energy landscape.
Keywords : Yenilenebilir enerji, Türkiye, zaman serileri, sinir ağları, iklim değişikliği, ARIMA, LSTM