APPLICABILITY OF TIME-DEPENDENT SEISMICITY MODEL FOR EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE ALONG THE NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT ZONE

Authors : Nilgün Lütfiye SAYIL

Pages : 238-251

Doi:10.18038/estubtda.624363

View : 19 | Download : 11

Publication Date : 2019-09-26

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Normal 0 21 false false false TR X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:`Normal Tablo`; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:``; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:`Calibri`,sans-serif;} The applicability of the time-dependent seismicity model was investigated for earthquakes occurrence along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. This region was separated into thirteen seismogenic zones by virtue of specific seismological and geomorphological criteria, and RTIMAP insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(regional time and magnitude predictable); model was applied for these zones. The data including in both instrumental period insert ignore into journalissuearticles values( Ms ³ 5.5); until the beginning of 2016 and historical period insert ignore into journalissuearticles values( Io ³ 9.0 corresponding to Ms ³ 7.0); before 1900 have been used in the study. Interevent times and magnitudes of mainshocks generated in each zone have predictive properties expressed by the RTIMAP. For the region considered, the relationship with increasing slope between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the preceding earthquake shows that this model is suitable. On the basis of these equations and taking into account the formation time and magnitude of the last events in each zone, probabilities to the next main shocks in five decades and the magnitudes of the next events were estimated.
Keywords : North Anatolian Fault Zone, Time dependent Seismicity, RTIMAP, Earthquake Occurrence Probability