An interaction-oriented multi-agent SIR model to assess the spread of SARS-CoV-2

Authors : Koray ALTUN, Serkan ALTUNTAŞ, Türkay DERELİ

Pages : 1548-1559

Doi:10.15672/hujms.751734

View : 25 | Download : 14

Publication Date : 2021-10-15

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :It is important to recognize that the dynamics of each country are different. Therefore, the SARS-CoV-2 insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(COVID-19); pandemic necessitates each country to act locally, but keep thinking globally. Governments have a responsibility to manage their limited resources optimally while struggling with this pandemic. Managing the trade-offs regarding these dynamics requires some sophisticated models. ``Agent-based simulation`` is a powerful tool to create such kind of models. Correspondingly, this study addresses the spread of COVID-19 employing an interaction-oriented multi-agent SIR insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(Susceptible-Infected-Recovered); model. This model is based on the scale-free networks insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(incorporating \insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(10,000\); nodes); and it runs some experimental scenarios to analyze the main effects and the interactions of ``average-node-degree``, ``initial-outbreak-size``, ``spread-chance``, ``recovery-chance``, and ``gain-resistance`` factors on ``average-duration insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(of the pandemic last);``, ``average-percentage of infected``, ``maximum-percentage of infected``, and ``the expected peak-time``. Obtained results from this work can assist determining the correct tactical responses of partial lockdown.
Keywords : SARS CoV 2 COVID 19, Agent based simulation, Multi agent SIR model