Retail and Finance in the Era of Digital Transformation: Analysis of E-commerce, Exchange Rates, and Interest Rates

Authors : Havva Koç

Pages : 202-221

View : 31 | Download : 43

Publication Date : 2024-12-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study aims to examine the transformation of the retail sector and commercial/individual loans in Turkey, evaluating the impact of e-commerce (card-based online transactions), exchange rates, and deposit interest rates on these areas. The literature reveals a limited number of studies that simultaneously assess the effects of internet-based card payments on the retail sector in conjunction with macroeconomic factors. In this context, the research aims to provide both theoretical and practical contributions. An analysis conducted using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with data from 2017 to 2023 indicates that a shock applied to retail sales has a positive effect over two periods. A shock to e-commerce positively affects retail sales for the first three periods, but this effect turns negative by the fourth period due to the exchange rate shock. The impact of the deposit interest rate shock is uncertain. Conversely, a shock to commercial and individual loans has a positive impact for three periods. A shock to e-commerce also positively affects commercial and individual loans for the first three periods, with the exchange rate shock having a similar positive effect. The impact of the deposit interest rate shock remains uncertain. This analysis highlights the interactions between the retail sector and loans, emphasizing the significance of card transactions in e-commerce. Moreover, the findings provide a comprehensive framework for researchers aiming to explore the combined effects of digitalization and macroeconomic variables, while also offering concrete recommendations for policymakers and businesses.
Keywords : Makro Ekonomi, E-Ticaret, Ticari Krediler, Döviz Kuru, Faiz