THE PATH TO WAR: UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP

Authors : Mehmet ALKANALKA

Pages : 55-75

Doi:/jirps.1231215

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Publication Date : 2023-04-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The Russia-Ukraine War shocked Europe and led to radical transformations in its security architecture. This article aims to understand the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict since the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit. Ten Ukraine\`s white papers for the period 2007-2021 and three Russia\`s national security strategy documents were examined, as well as the changes in the international structure, the threat perceptions of the warring party, and the effects of the leader changes on the war. Following the end of the Cold War, Russia acted suspiciously towards the NATO and its unilateral expansion eastward. Russia and Ukraine’s military capabilities are incomparably different. It is concluded that NATO, the USA, the changing international structure, and the different priorities of leadership in Ukraine are the main factors of the war. It is understood that the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit, which gave green light to NATO\`s membership in Ukraine, was an important turning point on the road to the Ukraine War. In conclusion, the approaching Russia-Ukraine War was foreseen in the examined Russian and Ukrainian documents. Although it has been stated in Ukraine’s White Papers that its NATO membership is indispensable for its security and that a possible large-scale military action by Russia is expected, NATO has not taken any concrete steps in this regard.
Keywords : neorealizm, neoklasik realizm, tehdit dengesi, Rusya Ukrayna Savaşı, beyaz kitap