OPTIMIZATION OF TURKISH MACRO ECONOMETRIC FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES FOR GROWTH

Authors : Ayarlar Ahmet Mete ÇİLİNGİRTÜRK, Habip KOÇAK, Turgut ÜN
Pages : 11-24
View : 37 | Download : 5
Publication Date : 2018-08-09
Article Type : Research Paper
Abstract :Financial and monetary policies are aiming to increase production growth and  keeping inflation and unemployment at a minimum. However, the complex  interactions between economic variables and the range of economic instruments  complicate to obtain these goals. In addition, the economical and behavioural  habits of the society and the market economy structure of the nation force the  state to choose among the policies. In this context, it is necessary to understand  the characteristics of behavioural economics beside the theoretical issues.  As, 5-Yearly Development Plans were used for national economic planning,  which is used for the purpose of establishing economic policy, the model based  Macro-Turkey program was used during a short period. Today, the General  Directorate of Economic Modeling and Strategic Studies `Medium Term  Program Key Macroeconomic and Financial Targets` reports make proposals  for economic policy making and development.  The aim of the work is to estimate and compare the fiscal and monetary policy  model of Turkey. The research question considers also the recession periods  after 2008-2009 international crises. Some governments had forcefully recourse  fiscal policies to overcome the recession. There was a wide consensus that the  financial markets had played a decisive role in the current economic problems. A  quarterly 2006-2017 data was collected with 44 observations, which includes  consumer price inflation 2003 constant prices, policy interest rate, broad money,  central government spending, gross fixed capital formation, GDP with constant  prices, tax revenues, gross external dept. Dynamic equation system estimates  will be held simultaneously with the appropriate variables and indicators. The  goal of maximum growth will be optimized under the constraints of Turkish  current economic condition. Therefore, the econometric analysis and  optimization techniques will be used consecutively.  The macro economical Keynesian coefficients are expected to occur with the  model. These coefficients are the main ones used to simulate the dynamic  stochastic general equilibrium insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(DSGE); models used by the central governments  to calibrate their policies. The response of the output to fiscal and financial  shocks might quantifiable through simulating the model
Keywords : Fiscal Policies, Monetary Policies, Optimazation Theory, Macro Economy

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