Time frame for future large earthquakes near Istanbul based on east-to-west decelerating failure of the North Anatolian Fault

Authors : Fatih BULUT, Asli DOGRU

Pages : 204-214

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Publication Date : 0000-00-00

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Large earthquakes that have occurred along the North Anatolian Fault insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(NAF); were analysed to elaborate the time frame of future large earthquakes near Istanbul. The historical earthquake catalog that was compiled covered 1 nearly complete and 2 fully complete failures of the NAF between 1250 and 2000 AD. These data were used to investigate the space-time systematics of M >= 7.0 earthquakes. The catalogue identified an east-to-west decelerating domino-like failure of the NAF. The deceleration starts around the western tip of the 1944 Gerede rupture. This suggested that failure of the remaining unruptured similar to 250-km section in the west insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(Istanbul to Saros); will take substantially longer than failure of the already ruptured similar to 950-km section in the east insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(Karliova to Izmit);. The calculations indicated that complete failure of the NAF will last for 243 +/- 3 years. The deceleration could not be explained by strain partitioning between the subparallel strands of the NAF in the Marmara region.
Keywords : Future earthquakes near İstanbul, North Anatolian Fault, historical earthquakes