Implications From the Meteorological Data Effects on Water Level Fluctuations of the Lake Van (Eastern Anatolia/Türkiye)

Authors : Ayşegül Feray MEYDAN, Suna AKKOL, Onur Hakan DOGAN
Pages : 299-308
Doi:10.33714/masteb.1125161
View : 63 | Download : 19
Publication Date : 2022-09-30
Article Type : Research Paper
Abstract :Lake Van is located in the eastern part of Türkiye and forms the largest soda lake in the world. In this study, we present the relationship between instrumental data which belongs to Lake Van level changes and meteorological parameters by performing a multilevel analysis. The data set consists of monthly average levels of Lake Van and monthly meteorological parameters insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(temperature, precipitation and wind speed); between 1944-2019 years. Two different multilevel linear models; random intercept, random intercept and slope model were used. Unstructured insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(UN); covariance structure and Maximum Likelihood insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ML); were used for repeated measurements and estimation, respectively. Log-likelihood insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(ll);, Akaike Information Criteria insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(AIC);, Bayesian Information Criteria insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(BIC); and AIC Corrected insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(AICC); were used for the selection of the best model. The random intercept and slope model insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(Model II); is explained as the best model for the lake level changes in this study. Statistical results in this study indicated that the temperature and wind speed are the key parameters controlling the Lake Van water level fluctuations, whereas the precipitation effect is minimal due to the type of precipitation insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(snowfall);. For this reason, temperature, wind speed and also the type of precipitation insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(snowfall or rain); must be considered for disaster modelling in settlements of Lake Van and similarly closed basin lakes.
Keywords : Lake level changes, Lake Van, meteorological parameters, multilevel analysis

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