The Sudan War and its Reflections on the Red Sea: Regional Instability or Search for a New Balance of Power?

Authors : Amir Salim

Pages : 131-148

Doi:10.47932/ortetut.1774033

View : 101 | Download : 2489

Publication Date : 2025-10-31

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :Sudan has been in war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023. This study seeks to examine the effects of the ongoing war on security and geopolitical balance of power in the Red Sea. It provides an analysis of the motivations behind the external actors’ quest for naval presence on Sudan’s Red Sea coast before and after the war. In addition, it analyzes Sudan’s strategy on overtures by those external actors. It begins by providing contextual background and analysis of the war and elaborates its implications on Sudan neighboring countries in the Red Sea region. The central argument is that the current conflict in Sudan is unlikely to affect the security or reshape the balance of power in the Red Sea region. The paper posits that the recurrent political instability in Sudan and geopolitical rivalry have from one hand shaped Sudan strategy towards external interests in its eastern coastline and from the other hand maintained the current balance of power in the Red Sea region. The conclusion reexamines the main assumptions and reinforces that external actors’ competition has crippled Sudan’s capability to allow robust external naval presence on its Red Sea coast. Finally, the paper advocates for a joint collaborative security framework to be agreed between Sudan and external actors with the view to maintain security and contribute to the stability of the wider Red Sea region.
Keywords : Sudan, Red Sea, Horn of Africa, Geopolitics, Security

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