Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

Authors : Sertac ORUC, İsmail YÜCEL, Ayşen YILMAZ

Pages : 11749-11778

Doi:10.18400/tekderg.714980

View : 14 | Download : 15

Publication Date : 2022-03-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(1950-2015 period); observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(2015-2098 period); of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales, 5 minutes storm durations, then five minutes time series aggregated to the storm durations that are subject of interest. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(GEV); models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data are obtained. Nonstationary model results are in general exhibited smaller return level values with respect to stationary model results of each storm duration for observed data driven model results. Considering the projected data driven model results; on average nonstationary models produce mostly lower return levels for mid and longer return periods for all storm durations and return periods except one hour storm duration. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(RCP);, there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.
Keywords : Climate Change, Stormwater, Nonstationary, Extreme Rainfall