PREDICTION OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET TAX REVENUES USING MARKOV MODEL

Home Page
About
Submit A Journal
Submit A Conference
Submit Paper/Book
- Submit a Preprint
- Submit a Book
Contact

Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi
Volume:25 Issue:2
PREDICTION OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET TAX REVENUES USING MARKOV MODEL

PREDICTION OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET TAX REVENUES USING MARKOV MODEL

Authors : Can MAVRUK, Ersin KIRAL

Pages : 41-56

View : 19 | Download : 8

Publication Date : 2016-04-30

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The aim of this paper is to describe the behavior of the sample data and to predict the realization rates of tax revenues by one step stochastic Markov chain model. The realization rates of the tax revenues are estimated by using 2000-2014 gross annual data extracted from TR Revenue Administration. Four Markov models are constructed for the realization rates of every tax revenue. The realization probabilities for the year 2016 are predicted by constructing probability matrices of transitions between classes described for every model. Revenues are also forecasted by the product of the initial probability matrix and transition probability matrix. Limiting matrix of predictions are found. The best Markov model was found by estimating the sum of mean square errors for every model. The results are compared and interpreted.
Keywords : Tax Revenues, Transition Probabilities, Markov Analysis, Budget Forecast

ORIGINAL ARTICLE URL

VIEW PAPER (PDF)

* There may have been changes in the journal, article,conference, book, preprint etc. informations. Therefore, it would be appropriate to follow the information on the official page of the source. The information here is shared for informational purposes. IAD is not responsible for incorrect or missing information.