OLASILIKLI PERT ANALİZİNDE KULLANILAN BETA DAĞILIMININ BEKLENEN DEĞERİNİN HESABINDA ORTAYA ÇIKABİLECEK HATALARIN PARAMETRİK OLARAK İNCELENMESİ

Authors : Osman UNUTULMAZ

Pages : 107-111

View : 17 | Download : 10

Publication Date : 1984-01-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The modal value of the beta distribution is a functıon of the upper and Iower limits of the range. That is, for a given range, the modal value ol the distribution is determinable. However, in probabilis-tic pert models, along vvith the upper and lovver limits, a modal value is also estimated. The difference betvveen the estimated and the calculatcd modal val-ues causes an error in expected value vvhich is ob-tained using the lovver limit, upper limit and the modal value. In this paper, necessary tools are developed and the magnitudes of errors caused by the estimated modal values are evaluated. Consequently, it is point-ed out that the deviation in expected value may be as much as % 30 of the range.
Keywords : olasılıklı pert analizinde kullanılan beta dağılımı, işletme