Estimation of the Investment Function for the Türkiye Economy: New Empirical Evidence from Period Including the Covid-19 Outbreak

Authors : Onur Çelik

Pages : 79-89

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Publication Date : 2025-01-29

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :The developments in recent years have given directions to scientific researches. One of them, this study attempted to determine the investment function for Türkiye economy. As addition to testing investment fuction, the study also aimed to appear information how Covid-19 outbreak effected investments in reference period which contained the latest years from 1990 through 2022 stemming from World Bank database. Following to applying unit root tests empirically, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method used to see long run relationship. According to results obtained thanks to ARDL method, reference model was valid and series in the model were co-integrated in the long and short run. In the short run, any shock was calculated as being disappeared and to equilibrium in third term (year). While interest rate was negative varible for investments –as expected-; no significant empirical result was found about the effect of the Covid-19 over investment. In the direction of results, firstly sensitive arrangements are recommended to policy-makers since coefficient elasticity of investment was quitely high. Additionally, monetary policy was seen to be required revisions against new economic conditions. Therefore low interest rate policy should be implemented in the shock periods provided that it sets up again by considering current situations.
Keywords : Yatırım, Türkiye ekonomisi, Faiz oranı, Kovid-19

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