The Economic Impact of the Paris Agreement on Sectoral Outputs in Türkiye: An Input-Output Approach

Authors : Mustafa BORAN, Bekir KAYACAN

Pages : 419-452

Doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1211511

View : 52 | Download : 51

Publication Date : 2023-06-26

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :This study analyzes the economic impact of the Paris Agreement on sectoral outputs in Türkiye. All member countries are required to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by the Agreement according to their responsibilities and capabilities. In this regard, developed countries are subject to absolute emission reduction. Türkiye ratified the Agreement in 2021 as a developing country and started implementation in 2022 as stated in the Nationally Determined Contributions. Regarding implementation of theAgreement, three scenarios are analyzed: the business-as-usual insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(as a developing country);, the absolute emission reduction insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(as a developed country);, and the exit insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(exiting the Agreement);. Emission pathways and reduction amounts for each scenario are estimatedaccordingly. An input-output model is used based on 2018 tables for 45 sectors. Five policy options are analyzed regarding how to distribute the emission reduction burden among sectors: all sectors according to their shares in 2018 emissions insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(option 1);; the top 9 sectors whose emission coefficients are above average insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(option 2);; the top 6 sectors whose emission multipliers are high insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(option 3);; the top 11 sectors whose emission multipliers are above average insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(option 4);; the top 12 sectors which are the top 11 in option 4 plus the construction sector insert ignore into journalissuearticles values(option 5);. Reducing emissions significantly reduces sectoral output in all scenarios and policy options. However, the impact of the business-as-usual is less than absolute emission reduction. Targeting only a few sectors in emission reduction results in a lower impact. If policy optionsare sorted by their total cost from smallest to largest, the order would be 3, 2, 4, 5, and 1.
Keywords : Emisyon azaltımı, Paris Anlaşması, Ekonomik etki analizi, Girdi çıktı modeli