Intertwined Policrises: Refugee Inflows, Natural Disasters, Financial Instability, and Housing Market Dynamics in Emerging Economies

Authors : Levent Sümer
Pages : 40-52
Doi:10.26466/opusjsr.1782285
View : 185 | Download : 239
Publication Date : 2025-10-30
Article Type : Research Paper
Abstract :This study investigates the combined socioeconomic impacts of overlapping global crises—including financial instability, ongoing wars, refugee inflows, and natural disasters—on emerging economies, with a focus on Türkiye. Using a mixed-methods approach merging perception surveys and econometric analyses, the paper examines how refugee-induced demographic shifts and the February 2023 earthquakes interacted to reshape housing market dynamics across eleven affected provinces. The findings reveal a double demand shock in Türkiye’s housing market: refugee inflows and disaster displacement simultaneously reduced supply and increased demand, generating significant price surges and spatial fragmentation of housing price cointegration. Furthermore, global financial turbulence and inflation magnified affordability problems, while wars on the northern and southern borders of Türkiye created secondary migration pressures. Results show that while some cities (Adana, Gaziantep) demonstrated resilience due to robust infrastructure and labor mobility, others (Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Adıyaman) experienced structural breaks and long-term divergence from regional housing price trends. The study contributes to the literature on crisis convergence by situating Türkiye’s experience within the broader polycrisis framework, highlighting how financial, political, social, and environmental shocks interact to exacerbate vulnerabilities in urban systems. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for integrated crisis management, resilient housing finance, inclusive labor policies, regional burden sharing, and scaled social infrastructure investment.
Keywords : Mülteciler, Konut Piyasası, Deprem, Finansal Kriz, Türk Telekom, Sosyoekonomi, Polikriz

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