Estimating potential future distribution of some selected Oak species in the Marmara Region

Authors : Lionel Constantin Fosso, Uzay Karahalil, Mehmet Özdemir, Cemre Yürük Sonuç, Deniz Hazel Diren Üstün, Yurdanur Ünal, Mesut Tandoğan

Pages : 1-11

Doi:10.17568/ogmoad.1282221

View : 258 | Download : 222

Publication Date : 2023-12-01

Article Type : Research Paper

Abstract :In this study, climate simulations were obtained by reducing the global model results to 2.5 km resolution with the COSMO-CLM model with a dynamic downscaling approach. Bioclimatic variables corresponding to the reference years 2031-2040, 2051-2060, 2071-2080 and 2091-2100 were calculated by using high-resolution meteorological parameters produced from the current and future RCP8.5 emission scenario. With the help of the MaxEnt program run with these variables, habitat suitability analysis was carried out for Quercus frainetto, Q. cerris, Q. petraea and Q. infectoria species distributed in the Marmara Region. When examining the obtained results, it has been concluded that the areas of Quercus frainetto, Q. cerris and Q. petraea increase while the area of Quercus infectoria decrease. It has been revealed that the suitable areas for Quercus frainetto increase from 2020 to 2050, but the highly suitable areas decrease from 2050 to 2070. Furthermore, it has been found that there will be an increase in the highly suitable areas from 2070 to 2100, while both less suitable and suitable areas will experience a decrease. It has been determined that future climatic conditions will increase the habitat suitability of Quercus cerris and Q. petraea and will create the most favourable conditions for their establishment. In contrast, it has been observed that the suitable areas for Quercus infectoria are projected to increase from 2020 to 2050 but decrease from 2050 to 2070 and subsequently from 2070 to 2100.
Keywords : Meşe, iklim değişikliği, habitat uygunluğu modellemesi, Marmara Bölgesi